The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan has revised upward its forecast for real GDP growth in 2025. The economy is now expected to grow by 9.5 percent, compared to the previous projection of 8.5–9 percent. The central bank’s new Monetary Policy Report says.
GDP forecast
The baseline scenario of the medium-term forecast assumes the following external economic conditions:
- Continued inflationary pressures in the external environment;
- Moderate economic growth in key trading partner countries;
- Volatile global commodity and raw material prices.
Economic growth will be driven by several key factors:
- Rising domestic demand. Higher real household incomes, active consumer lending, and remittance inflows are boosting purchasing power.
- Increased investment. Strong investment activity continues to play a major role.
- Sectoral development. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, construction are expected to contribute significantly to growth.
For 2026, real GDP growth is projected at 8.5 percent.
Inflation forecast
Despite positive GDP expectations, the National Bank anticipates accelerating inflation, which could reach 8.5–9 percent by the end of 2025 — above the target range.
This is attributed to both external and internal factors:
- External: rising prices for imported goods and raw materials.
- Internal: higher utility tariffs and increased university tuition fees, alongside moderate inflation expectations among households and businesses.
The bank plans to implement monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation back to target by the end of 2026.
Key risks include accelerating inflation in neighboring countries, strong domestic demand, fluctuations in global food and fuel prices, and moderate inflation expectations among economic agents.
